Theory of change
Community-based change initiatives often have ambitious goals, and so planning specific on-the-ground strategies to those goals is difficult. Likewise, the task of planning and carrying out evaluation research that can inform practice and surface broader lessons for the field in general is a challenge. Theories of change (ToC) are vital to evaluation success for a number of reasons. Programmes need to be grounded in good theory. By developing a theory of change based on good theory, managers can be better assured that their programmes are delivering the right activities for the desired outcomes. And by creating a theory of change programmes are easier to sustain, bring to scale, and evaluate, since each step - from the ideas behind it, to the outcomes it hopes to provide, to the resources needed - are clearly defined within the theory. Within this wider framework logic or outcomes models are very closely related, often being used to take a more narrowly practical look at the relationship between inputs and results.
A good place to start is with this introduction to 'theory of change'. Below are annotated links to a number of ToC resources:
- ESPA guide to working with Theory of Change for research This 2012 guide by Isabel Vogel explains what the theory of change approach is about, its benefits and uses. It explains the key conceptual and practical points to consider for developing, working with and indeed challenging and testing the theory of change throughout the lifetime of a project. It also outlines how to develop a theory of change that is of high-quality but is tailored to the context and needs of research projects. The guide is divided into three sections. Sections A and B offer a tailored approach for ESPA research teams. Sections C and D present practical tips and resources for those wishing to learn more about theory of change.
- Theory of Change review This 2011 report by Cathy James aims to draw together Comic Relief staff and partners' experiences in using theory of change; to identify others in development that are using theory of change and analyse their different approaches and experience; and to capture learning from everyone to promote debate, and to help inform what agencies using or advocating for the use of theory of change do next.
- Understanding 'Theory of Change' in international development: A review of existing knowledge This 2012 report by Danielle Stein and Craig Valters provides a review of the concepts and common debates within 'Theory of Change' (ToC) material. The authors find that there is no consensus on how to define ToC, although it is commonly understood as an articulation of how and why a given intervention will lead to specific change. They identify four main purposes of ToC - strategic planning, description, monitoring and evaluation and learning - although these inevitably overlap. They also identify some confusion in the terminology associated with ToC. Of particular note is the lack of clarity surrounding the use of the terms 'assumption' and 'evidence'. Finally, they draw out information on what authors feel makes for ToC 'best practice' in terms of both content and process, alongside an exploration of the remaining gaps where more clarity is needed.
- Review of the use of 'Theory of Change' in international development This 2012 DFID review report by Isabel Vogel focuses on the practical aspects of working with theory of change in programmes. The review report is structured around nine topics that were identified through scoping interviews with key DFID staff and partners. To assist the reader, for each topic, key points are highlighted at the start of each section, the findings illustrated with examples. Practical suggestions are highlighted. Box examples are also provided to illustrate people’s experience, from donors to implementing agencies and projects. The appendices contain more examples of documented theories of change and also guidelines and tools to support people working with theory of change.
- Using Programme Theory to Evaluate Complicated and Complex Aspects of Interventions This 2008 paper by Patricia Rogers proposes ways to use programme theory for evaluating aspects of programmes that are complicated or complex. It argues that there are useful distinctions to be drawn between aspects that are complicated and those that are complex, and provides examples of programme theory evaluations that have usefully represented and address both of these. While complexity has been defined in varied ways in previous discussions of evaluation theory and practice, this article draws on Glouberman and Zimmerman's conceptualization of the differences between what is complicated (multiple components) and what is complex (emergent). Readers may also want to visit the LfS page Is the system complex or complicated? for more resources in this area.
- Theories of Change and Realistic Evaluation : Peas in a Pod or Apples and Oranges This 2007 paper by Avril Blamey and Mhairi MacKenzie looks at two proponents of theory-based approaches to evaluation that have found favour in the UK in recent years. These are Theories of Change and Realistic Evaluation. In this article they share their evolving views on the points of connection and digression between the approaches. They provide a background to the two approaches that emphasizes the importance of programme context in understanding how complex programmes lead to changes in outcomes. We then explore some of the differences in how 'theory' is conceptualized and used within the two approaches and consider how knowledge is generated and cumulated in subtly different ways depending on the approach that is taken. Finally, they offer their thoughts on what this means for evaluators on the ground seeking an appropriate framework for their practice
- The Community Builder's Approach to Theory of Change; A Practical Guide to Theory Development This guide by Andrea A. Anderson is for planners and evaluators who are going to facilitate a process for creating a theory of change with community-based programs and community change initiatives. The guide is in two sections. Section One answers the question 'What is a theory of change?'. It provides all the information needed to facilitate a theory of change process with a community group. Section Two is a resource toolbox for the theory of change facilitator.
- You Can Get There from Here: Using a Theory of Change Approach to Plan Urban Education Reform This report by James Connell and Adena Klem presents a theory of change approach to planning educational reform initiatives with a focus on district level efforts. Using examples from ongoing work with urban school districts, the authors begin from the idea that a theory of change approach “helps make plans for urban education more sensible—more grounded in current research, in demonstrated best practice, and in local experience.” After exploring the roots of the theory of change approach, the authors provide a step by step example of how an initial change framework is transformed into a fully articulated theory of change. The benefits of this planning approach for district level educational reform are then discussed and the authors conclude by outlining its implications for educational consultants and technical assistance providers working in diverse education settings.
- Applying a Theory of Change Approach to the Evaluation of Comprehensive Community Initiatives: Progress, Prospects, and Problems This 1998 paper by James P. Connell and Anne C. Kubisch presents what the authors call a "theory of change approach" to evaluating CCIs. They describe three stages in carrying out this approach: i) surfacing and articulating a theory of change; ii) measuring a CCI's activities and intended outcomes; and iii) analyzing and interpreting the results of an evaluation, including their implications for adjusting the initiative's theory of change and its allocation of resources.
- Theory of Change: A Practical Tool For Action, Results and Learning This manual was prepared by Organizational Research Services (ORS) in Seattle Washington and written by Jane Reisman, Anne Gienapp and colleagues. It is designed as a practical guide to help develop a therory of change with a number of worksheets.
- Theory of Change Tool Manual This manual has been developed by the International Network on Strategic Philanthropy(INSP). The Tool allows users to create a framework or model of change, also known as a "theory of change" or "logic model" which maps out how your program or initiative plans on getting from present conditions to your vision of success. It provides a guide - with worksheets - for planning, implementing, and evaluating your initiative or effort. Once completed, it provides a picture of how your program or initiative will bring about change in order to accomplish an identified goal. This Tool was specifically designed for use by organizations such as Foundations, Trustees, NGOs, and individuals such as donors, philanthropists or consultants to facilitate the development of a Theory of Change, the first step in strategic philanthropy. As the authors point out, as assets continue to shrink, the strategic, conscientious, and thoughtful use of resources is vital. Research, planning, collaboration, monitoring, and evaluation are key components of the work, particularly as all parties are seeking the maximum benefit from social investing.
- Mapping Change Using a Theory of Change to Guide Planning and Evaluation This guide was written by Anne Mackinnon and Natasha Amott and is part of the GrantCraft series. It begins by showing how, by mapping a process of change from beginning to end, a theory of change establishes a blueprint for the work ahead and anticipates its likely effects. A theory of change also reveals what should be evaluated, when, and how. The guide then looks at why would a grant maker develop and use a theory of change, and goes on to answer a number of common questions that are asked about the process.
An accompanying page present a range of resource links on logic or outcomes modelling.You may also be interested in the related topic of indicator development. Another related page can be found in the knowledge management section with links on how best to develop conceptual models.